Update: Oil smashes $86 for the first time
This week’s inventory report will be very interesting. If there is a significant build, the price could unravel quickly. If there is another surprise on the downside, we may crack $90 by the end of the week. But as long as oil prices stay at these levels, Saudi [...]
Inventory Report,Inventory Report >
Oil Tops $85 
This Week in Petroleum 10-24-07
Whoa! The analysts missed this one by a mile. Here were the predictions, prior to the release of the report:
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average predict crude inventories rose 300,000 barrels during the week ended Oct. 19, and Vienna’s PVM Oil Associates also noted that “expectations for this week’s U.S. oil inventory data [...]
Nothing Left to Give
The reason I am not a short-term trader is that you have that extra variable of market sentiment to take into account. Market sentiment can change in a hurry; it can shave the value of a stock by 50% in one trading session. In the longer-term, it is less of a factor and you can [...]
Gas Prices, Gouging, and Food versus Fuel
A few newsworthy items to cover: Gas prices, gas gouging legislation, and food versus fuel.
Gas Prices on the Rise
Surprise! It seems that gas prices are rising:
Gas prices on the rise again, analyst reports
Gas prices are on the rise again, just as Americans hit the highways for Thanksgiving.
Gas prices rose about 5 cents per gallon nationwide [...]
This Week in Petroleum 9-06-07
Another week, another all-time low on gasoline inventories. As I wrote last week:
Gasoline inventories were not this low following Hurricane Katrina, and yet we have had an uneventful summer. It is very possible that we will not dig ourselves out of this hole for a long time. In the short term, an upturn in gasoline [...]
Shakeout Predicted
I have never heard of James Mound, but I think he is correct in his assessment below. As I have mentioned, I absolutely would not buy oil at these prices. It may still go to $100 in the short term, and clearly that sentiment is helping drive the market, but the fundamentals have not changed [...]
This Week in Petroleum 11-15-06
The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration came out today, and it provided support for my latest essay. You can read the report at: This Week in Petroleum. A quick look at the gasoline inventory graph can tell you that upward pressure on gas prices is imminent:
In my previous essay, I argued that [...]
$4 Gasoline Has Arrived
Gas Prices in San Francisco
We no longer have to talk about the possibility of $4 gasoline. It is here.
$4 Gasoline in San Francisco
Thanks to Stuart Staniford for providing this picture. He lives in San Francisco, and said he drove past this station and saw the price for himself. It is going to be very [...]
Prepare for Volatility
I saw a comment from someone yesterday that if this week’s inventory report shows a sharp drop in crude inventories, oil will probably spike up above $100. I do think that because of the storms in the North Sea and the flooding in Mexico we will see a decent inventory draw this week. But I [...]
This Week in Petroleum 11-7-07
Updated Following Report Release
About 10 seconds after the report was released, I scanned down and found what I was looking for: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 0.8 million barrels compared to the previous week. I turned to the guy sitting next to me, as we had [...]
